The supply increment is accelerated, the demand is relatively in the seasonal off-season, the marginal changes gradually appear, the policy regulation is overweight, and the price limit is directly attacked. After the rapid rise of the futures and spot prices, they quickly turn and basically cut back. According to the daily output of ten days in Ordos, the daily output of ten days increased first and then decreased in October. The daily output reached a high of 2.47 million tons in the month. In the latter half of the year, due to the cooling of market sentiment, the decline of price and the impact of epidemic situation, the sales decreased, and the corresponding output also decreased. The average daily output in October was 2.2237 million tons, an increase of about 300000 tons compared with the daily average in September. At the end of the month, Nissan showed signs of picking up again. With the continuous promotion of supply guarantee and the continuous release of nuclear added capacity, there is still room for increment. On the demand side, in October, the demand is still in the off-season, the daily consumption runs at a low level as a whole, and the coastal daily consumption further falls. The inland daily consumption gradually rises from the low level with the decrease of temperature, the overall power rationing decreases, and the daily consumption remains at a high level year-on-year. When the marginal change at the supply side is more obvious, the terminal realizes warehouse building, and the speed of warehouse building in late ten days is accelerated. According to the calculated data of key power plants, the average daily coal consumption in October fell by about 6% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%. The base of the warehouse continued this month. As of the 28th, the base of the warehouse was about 21 million tons, and the number of days available for inventory returned to more than 17 days, 28 million tons lower than the level in the same period last year, narrowing the gap. From the data of terminals in eight coastal provinces, as of October 28, the average daily consumption in October was 1.727 million tons, down 12% month on month compared with September, and the year-on-year growth rate was still more than 20%. At the end of the month, the inventory of eight provinces was 21.79 million tons, and the monthly inventory was 3.21 million tons, and the available days returned to more than 12 days. According to the news released by the national development and Reform Commission, the coal storage of national unified dispatching power plants has reached 106 million tons, which can be used for 19 days, and the coal storage days of power plants in the three northeastern provinces have been increased to 32 days.

In terms of ports, in October, ports around the Bohai Sea built up 890000 tons of warehouses, the inventory of jiangnei port and East China port was low and stable, and the inventory of South China port was 900000 tons. The overall inventory base is still low. The transportation capacity was centralized to ensure supply, the overhaul of Daqin line was completed ahead of schedule, and the subsequent ports were transferred in to enhance the supplementary transportation capacity. The price limit was regulated by policy. In October, the coal price went out of the large inverted "V" character, and the higher price at the end of the month basically fell by half. The price of 5500 kcal at the pit mouth was lowered to near 1000 yuan / ton, and the price of 5500 kcal at the port was quoted to 1300 yuan / ton. As of the end of the month, the closing price of 11 contract was 1130 yuan / ton, down 1229.8 yuan or 52% from the monthly high of 2359.8. The main 01 contract fell to 973 yuan / ton, down 51% from the higher point.

expectation

In terms of fundamentals, the domestic supply side continues to increase production and ensure supply, and the subsequent output is still increasing. In terms of transportation, coordinate the transportation capacity of all parties and increase the transportation efficiency. The overhaul of Daqin line was completed on the 25th in advance, the number of days to open skylights in November was significantly reduced compared with that in previous months, and the supplementary transportation capacity of goods sources in the middle and lower reaches was enhanced. Recently, under the situation of weak supply and demand, the terminal inventory has been supplemented, and the coal storage available days of national unified dispatching power plants have reached 19 days. From the sample data of coastal terminals, the inventory available days of coastal power plants are around 12 days, which is relatively low. In November, the north will enter the central heating period, and the overall demand will rise significantly, especially the inland daily consumption. The coastal areas are relatively weak, and gradually fluctuate and rise. The supply and demand enter a double growth trend. The terminal base may still be fast in the first ten days, while the base base will slow down in the middle and late ten days as the demand continues to rise.

In terms of policy, from the second half of October, the policy regulation has been upgraded. In addition to further promoting the increase of production and supply and the power plant should make full use of its power, it directly regulates the price. The high point of coal price has been determined. At the beginning of November, the pit mouth price continued to decline, 5500 kcal basically reached around 1000 yuan / ton, the port quotation also further decreased, the market sentiment was still low, and the short-term coal price still fell. With the release of this wave of sentiment and the subsequent gradual recovery of overall demand, the market may stabilize and adjust around the middle of the year. However, according to the policy regulation, even if it enters the peak winter season, it is difficult for the subsequent coal price to rise sharply, and the price gradually returns to a reasonable range.