Recently, the domestic propylene oxide market can be described as ups and downs. At the beginning of April, the price hit a new low in more than four years, and at the same time crossed the price range of 2,000 yuan / ton in the shortest time; in the middle and late April, the market went up against the trend under the short situation in the market, and the current quotation is firm at around 8,500 yuan / ton .

In the author's opinion, the external factors at the beginning of 2020 have a greater impact on the chemical market, and the fluctuation of propylene oxide market is reasonable. However, from the perspective of the macro situation in the later period, as the country pays more attention to environmental protection, the conversion of new and old production capacity in the propylene oxide industry will become inevitable. The entry of new technologies and new equipment will certainly have an impact on traditional enterprises. Inevitable.

As the upstream of polyurethane, in recent years, the propylene oxide and its main downstream PPG market has been much lower-key than the "black" MDI and TDI markets. In 2019, China's propylene oxide production capacity is about 3.3 million tons, accounting for about 30% of the global total production capacity; production is about 2.8 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate reaches 86%. The barrier to entry for the propylene oxide industry is relatively low. There are nearly 20 domestic propylene oxide manufacturers, including three with a production capacity of over 300,000 tons / year, namely, China Shipping Shell, Xinyue Chemical and Jishen Chemical. As a major chemical province, propylene oxide in Shandong accounts for as much as 46% of the country's production capacity, but with the exception of Yantai Wanhua, all others belong to the chlorohydrin plant.

In October 2019, China issued the "Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2019 Version)", which clearly proposed restrictions on the new device of the chlorohydrin method, and encouraged the construction of direct oxidation methods of 150,000 tons / year and 200,000 tons / year Of the co-oxidation method. With the introduction of new policies, the propylene oxide industry has entered a stage of transformation, and large-capacity green devices have been put into production.

According to incomplete statistics, at least 6 million tons / year of propylene oxide projects are under construction or planning in China and beyond. From a technical point of view, most of these projects are co-oxidation and co-production, and some adopt the direct oxidation method. In terms of construction areas, in addition to Shandong, coastal areas such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Tianjin are also actively participating. Among them, seven are planned to be put into operation in 2020, with a total production capacity of about 1.27 million tons per year, mainly represented by China Shipping Shell, Sinochem Quanzhou, Tianjin Bohua and Jinling Fuqiang.

Internationally, in 2020, Thailand and Saudi Arabia have new propylene oxide plant plans to put into production, the United States Lyondell Basil 470,000 tons / year device will be put into operation in 2021, while India also has two sets of 300,000 tons / year large device plan 2022 Annual commercial operation.

From the perspective of the export market, China currently only allows direct oxidation products to be exported, but due to the limited capacity and output of the direct oxidation method, no export breakthrough has been achieved. It is expected that the import and export market will maintain the status quo before the replacement of new and old domestic devices is completed. Only after the domestic market needs are met can China's propylene oxide products have the possibility of going abroad.

Comprehensively, with the continuous production of propylene oxide large-capacity green devices, the replacement of outdated devices will gradually be completed, and the export market is also expected to open. The supply pattern of propylene oxide will change dramatically in the next few years.