According to preliminary statistics from the customs, China imported 540,000 tons of various minerals and chemical fertilizers in November 2019, the lowest monthly import volume in nearly 12 months. Everyone knows that the import volume is mainly potassium chloride and compound fertilizers, and the monthly import volume of compound fertilizers this year is generally hovering around 100,000 tons, so this "new low" basically means the import of potassium chloride. In the face of this "new low", can potassium chloride, which has been declining for a long time, laugh?
Port white potassium tightly sold to rise?
Detailed customs data show that from January to October 2019, China's imports of potassium chloride totaled 8.117 million tons, with a cumulative average price of $ 292.8 / ton. If the import in November is about 400,000 to 450,000 tons, assuming that the "new low" import volume will be reduced to 300,000 to 350,000 tons in December ... forget it, otherwise, the "assumption" will not be enough in the end, 2019 1- The 8.117 million tons of imports that have been confirmed in October are already 660,000 tons higher than the 7.456 million tons of imports in 2018, an increase of about 9%.
This is not enough! Let's look at another set of data: As of the first week of December, China's total potassium chloride port stocks were about 3.18 million tons. Although it has fallen from the 3.6-million-ton peak in the post-11 peak period for the seventh consecutive week, year-on-year What did you think of 1.95 million tons of the previous year, and 1.5 million tons of last year? Looking at the two sets of data from the previous paragraph, is the reason for the decline in the price of potassium chloride and the downturn in the market?
However, the recent decline in the price of potassium chloride at the port has slowed down. The reason is not because of the outbreak of demand, and it has nothing to do with any state reserve or customs clearance. The main two reasons are that it has obviously lost money, and the second is white potassium. It is said that it is almost gone. White potassium is the most concentrated potassium chloride species, and the rebound of potassium chloride prices often starts with white potassium. According to importers, although there is a lot of stock in Hong Kong, there is not much white potassium available for sale, and old customers have to be given priority. Therefore, they have gradually controlled the order. As a result, downstream traders have been forced to buy rice without rice. While the suspension, the bearish market sentiment changed slightly.
On the one hand, there is a high import volume and Hong Kong inventory, and on the other hand, the white potassium tightness has stopped selling again. What should I do downstream? This question will not be answered for the time being, let us continue to study.
Border Trade Import or Not in December Needs Attention!
Although the import volume of 8.117 million tons from January to October was so huge, the import volume through border trade was only 474,000 tons, which was much lower than the average of 933,000 tons in the same period of the previous four years. At this time we can estimate slightly, it is estimated that the total imports of border trade this year will only be half of the average level of the previous four years, very pathetic!
The border trade in July, August, September, and October was almost inadequate. The main reason was that the market was not good and prices were upside down. However, after such a long-term suspension of imports never before in history, especially in India, the large contract has only dropped by $ 10 / ton, but we have successfully reduced the price by $ 12 / ton on the monthly border trade contract and added a rebate of 10 After more than US $ / ton, in November the border trade potassium chloride started to fall all the way from the moment the news was released and the goods had not yet arrived. After two weeks, it was upside down again ...
It is understood that there is only a small amount of goods that have not yet arrived in November and most of them have been sold. The import orders in December are under discussion, and the results have not been determined. Let's make a bold assumption at this time. If we sign again in December and have fallen so badly in November, does this mean that foreign investors have cut prices again, or are importers confident in the market? Confident how did it fall so fast in November? If the import is not signed in December and the import is suspended again, then what does it mean-foreign merchants will not cut prices any more? Or are not many importers afraid of losing money again?
Let's extend it and think again: if there is no goods in the border trade in December, then the white potassium of the port will not be even more replenished. If the price of white potassium is raised and the price is again met with speculation, it happens that it will meet a certain level of demand release years ago. Is there any possibility of stopping the rebound of potassium chloride? Therefore, whether the import of potassium chloride at the border trade in December continues to be an issue must be paid attention to!
To sum up-I am afraid of seeing bearishness suddenly, and panic when I hear of speculation. The market is really tangled and difficult to grasp. It does n’t matter if you smile, but whoever laughs is the most important thing. "Turning" is indeed possible, but at least for the time being, this "turning" can only be a short-term factor, such as the trend of international potash fertilizer prices, the arrival of bonded zones, and the "attitude" of domestic potassium. It may affect whether the long-term trend continues to improve or fall to the bottom or even a new low again. Therefore, if you choose to do the short-term or long-term or not, the response will be simpler; for those who plan to do the long-term, there is still no rush.
