The overall market expectation is biased towards pessimism
In recent years, due to strong demand in the polyester industry, the demand for ethylene glycol in the domestic market has maintained a rapid growth trend. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the apparent consumption of ethylene glycol has continued to increase substantially. In 2002, it exceeded 3 million tons, reaching 3.019 million tons, becoming the world's largest ethylene glycol consumer in the United States. Due to the rapid growth of demand, It has promoted the increase of ethylene glycol production capacity. In recent years, many sets of large-scale ethylene glycol production facilities have been put into operation in China. With the continuous increase of ethylene glycol production capacity in China, the output has also increased.
Although China's ethylene glycol production capacity and output have grown rapidly, it still cannot meet the growing market demand for domestic polyester, etc., and it has to import a large amount every year, and the import volume is increasing year by year. At present, China's ethylene glycol products are mainly used in the production of polyester, antifreeze and adhesives, paint solvents, cold-resistant lubricants, surfactants and polyester polyols. Among them, polyester is the main consumption field of ethylene glycol in China, its consumption accounts for about 94.0% of the total domestic consumption, and about 6.0% is used for antifreeze, adhesive, paint solvent, cold resistant lubricant, surfactant and Polyester polyols, etc. In recent years, the production of polyester (including polyester fiber, polyester resin and film) in China has developed rapidly. In 2010, the output of polyester will reach about 19 million tons. By then, the demand for ethylene glycol will reach about 665. Ten thousand tons. Coupled with antifreeze and other aspects of consumption, it is expected that the total demand for ethylene glycol in China will continue to grow at a high rate.
The supply of ethylene glycol is still in a medium-low state. The total domestic ethylene glycol production is 57.11% (decreased), the non-coal load is 60.24% (stable), and the coal production is 52.69% (declining). Ethylene glycol prices oscillated sideways, and East China stock closed at 4630-4640 yuan / ton. The market supply side is still at a relatively low level, supporting the industry's mentality to a certain extent; although the downstream polyester price has been boosted by a narrow margin, the substantive transactions are still poor; the market is long and short, and the transaction is light.
According to the capacity data calculated by CCF, it is known that the ethylene glycol production capacity that may be affected is 600,000-800,000 tons per year, and 40%-50% of Saudi Arabia's production capacity is exported to China. It can be considered that the impact on the domestic ethylene glycol supply will be at the level of 300,000-400,000 tons per year, affecting the operating rate of 3%-4%. Whether there is a possibility of a more serious impact in the future or whether there is a shortage of raw materials in other factories remains to be traced, and geopolitical factors have become an unpredictable fuse in the ethylene glycol market. In addition, if there are no other accidents, the supply missing on the import is likely to be filled by the increased domestic load as the price of ethylene glycol rises. Not only that, but as domestic prices rise, the increase in imports is also likely to occur.
The operating rate of ethylene glycol plant in China is about 60.24%, which is higher than the previous month. The operating rate of coal-based ethylene glycol is about 68.22%, returning to normal level. The inventory of MEG port in the main port area of East China is about 498,000 tons, compared with last week. Increased by 13,000 tons. The starting load of the polyester plant was around 89.49%, and it remained at a high level. The sales and sales of polyester were around 55%, and the sales volume increased. Fundamentally, the crude oil plate oscillates, the weak sentiment affects, and the downstream polyester demand is still at a low level, and there is further downside expectations, and the overall market expectation is pessimistic.
From the perspective of the disk, after the EG2001 contract of the ethylene glycol futures contract fell sharply in the previous period, after two or three weeks of narrow sideways oscillations, the accumulated strength, the heavy volume fell again, the MACD green column indicators continued to spread, all indicating another wave of falling prices. The expansion. Therefore, it is expected that the EG2001 market will continue to be weak and continue to fall.
Based on the above judgment, we chose the short-selling ethylene glycol futures trading strategy: establish an ethylene glycol 2001 contract short position, the entry range is 4470-4500, the target price is 4000-4460, and the stop price is 4510-4800, entering the batch in batches. The total does not exceed 60% of the total funds.
